Norway are the dark horse of the 2026 World Cup — and it is not even close. The reason is a single name: Erling Haaland. The world's most prolific club striker is playing his first ever World Cup at age 25, after Norway missed the 2022 tournament entirely.
Haaland has 4 goals in the group stage alone and Norway have already qualified for the Round of 32 after beating Senegal 3-2. Their defensive structure is disciplined, and with Haaland in this form, Norway can beat anyone on their day.
Morocco are not really a dark horse anymore — but the world still underestimates them. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, they became the first African nation to reach the Semi-finals, beating Spain and Portugal on the way. The majority of that squad returns for 2026.
Their defensive organisation under Walid Regragui is exceptional. They defend in a compact low block and are lethal on the counterattack. The large Moroccan diaspora in the United States means they will have significant fan support at US venues.
Japan should not be underestimated. At the 2022 World Cup, they topped a group containing Germany and Spain — two European giants — before losing to Croatia on penalties in the Round of 16. The same generation of players is now at its absolute peak in 2026.
Japan play a sophisticated high-press system with world-class players across Europe's top leagues. They are incredibly well-drilled and capable of beating anyone in a one-off knockout match.
Colombia are a side with genuine technical quality throughout. They reached the Copa America 2024 Final (losing to Argentina on a late goal) with an exciting young squad. Their attacking talent and rhythm of play is one of the most entertaining in the tournament.
Colombia have already qualified for the Round of 32 and carry significant momentum. With players like Luis Diaz in blistering club form, they have the tools to hurt any opponent.
Cape Verde are the emotional story of the 2026 World Cup. A tiny island nation of 550,000 people in the Atlantic, they are making their World Cup debut — and they did not come just to make up the numbers.
In the group stage, Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw — one of the tournament's biggest shocks. Their goalkeeper Vozinha went from 46,000 Instagram followers to over 5 million overnight. They have since become the neutral's favourite team and a symbol of what the expanded 48-team format can produce.
They are unlikely to win the tournament. But as a story, as an inspiration, and as proof that football is truly global — Cape Verde are the heart of the 2026 World Cup.
Who are the favourites to win the World Cup 2026?
The pre-tournament favourites are France (Mbappe, Griezmann, Camavinga — squad depth is exceptional), Argentina (defending champions, Messi in record-breaking form), and Spain (Lamine Yamal at 17 is already one of the world's best, experienced core). Germany and Brazil are also considered genuine contenders.
Which team has the best chance of a dark horse run to the final?
Norway. They have the one ingredient that wins football tournaments: a generational striker in peak form at his first World Cup. Haaland's 4 group stage goals, combined with a relatively favourable potential knockout bracket path, makes Norway the most credible non-favourite to reach the last four.